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If I let you know, I flipped a coin 5 instances and on a regular basis I received head. What would be the final result on sixth flip? Most of us will say head.
Then I let you know that earlier than this when the coin was flipped 20 instances, the end result was 50% head and 50% tail. After this data, we could get just a little hesitant in calling out the end result as head on the sixth flip however principally nonetheless go together with the pinnacle.
This phenomenon known as recency bias. And it performs a dominant function on this planet of investments.
When the markets preserve rising over the current previous, with out a lot correction, most of us begin believing that it’ll proceed to rise sooner or later as effectively with out a lot draw back.
The market individuals experience this bias and speak about eye-popping current positive factors. The media shouts on the high of its voice to sensationalize this additional. Only some will current an extended image of the market historical past.
Sadly, each time the market positive factors, folks improve their stake with the expectation of superlative returns to proceed. And that will increase the general threat within the funding portfolio. In some unspecified time in the future, the markets appropriate leading to worth erosion and remorse.
Nonetheless, the great half is that if we perceive that we’re impacted by the recency bias, we are able to work over it.
To beat this bias, one ought to learn the market historical past of at the least the final 50 years intimately, not simply of India however worldwide extra developed markets. This may assist not simply in safeguarding the hard-earned cash within the downturn but in addition current an incredible alternative to take a position at cheaper costs.
Concluding this submit with a quote from Carl Richards “In case you are not conscious of recency bias, it might wreak havoc in your life. The one resolution I’ve come throughout is to elongate your definition of the current previous.”
Initially posted on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/sumitduseja
Truemind Capital is a SEBI Registered Funding Administration & Private Finance Advisory platform. You may write to us at join@truemindcapital.com or name us at 9999505324.
